The Three Pointer: Purdue vs. NC State (2024)

For the first time since 1980 the Purdue Boilermakers will be playing in the NCAA Final Four with an opportunity to play for a national title against the NC State Wolfpack. The Boilers have enjoyed a magical run through the NCAA Tourney following a string of disappointments that featured losses to low seeds in three consecutive instances. The Boilers responded to the worst of those, to 16th seeded FDU, by receiving another 1 seed and working their way through to be the champions of the Midwest region. Victories over Grambling St., Utah St., Gonzaga, and Tennessee have given Purdue fans what they have desperately been hoping to see for over forty years. They will have to face a bit of those same double digit seed ghosts with NC State being on their own magical run as an 11 seed out of the South region.

NC State, prior to the ACC Tourney, were just 17-14 and not on anyone’s radar to make the NCAA Tourney. They made an unprecedented run in that tourney that featured a banked in shot against Virginia to get a game into overtime and were also losing at halftime to Louisville. The Wolfpack would beat three NCAA Tourney teams in three consecutive nights in the Duke Blue Devils, Virginia Cavaliers, and North Carolina Tar Heels to gain the automatic qualifier to make the NCAA Tourney. NC State has now gone on to defeat Texas Tech, Oakland, Marquette, and Duke (again) to reach the program’s first Final Four since 1983.

That’s enough for the pleasantries. Let’s step into ‘The Three Pointer!’

1 | Limit the Turnovers and Bad Shots that Lead to Runouts & Easy Buckets

Another game, another mention of the most important aspect Purdue needs to control to give themselves the best opportunity to win. Purdue minimized their turnovers against Tennessee in the regional final but did not do a good job of preventing points off turnovers. Purdue allowed 20 points off 10 turnovers. In fact, Purdue gave up 12 points in the second half off just 5 turnovers. That’s a bad percentage that, had the Boilers been more careless with the ball, likely would have meant a loss.

Another piece that Purdue needs to prevent is taking bad shots early in the shot clock. There were multiple times where wings took poor shots from outside or drove into a congested lane that led to quick rebounds and runouts for the Vols. That was especially true when Purdue seemed very uneasy when the Vols went on their first half run. Matt Painter has said that bad shots are essentially a turnover and that comes from the fact that Purdue has the most dominant scorer in college basketball posted inside eight feet most possessions.

Purdue will need to again limit their turnovers to that magical number of 12. Coincidentally, NC State has forced an average of 12.1 turnovers per game throughout the entire season but have experienced a drop to just 10 through their run in the ACC and NCAA Tourneys. NC State has appeared more concerned about getting their defense set in the half court than applying the pressure they tried to throughout the season and that bodes well for an offense who thrives on getting itself set for the best spacing and timing for the sets they run.

2 | Take NC State’s Emotions Out of the Game

The story of D.J. Burns is an awesome one and you can tell by the way he plays on the court that he is the buoy that keeps the afloat emotionally throughout the game. His infectious smile and attitude when he and the Wolfpack are playing well has been the biggest driving factor in their sudden rise to the Final Four.

Purdue has shown so many times this year to deflate a team with scoring runs at key times and then grinding out games with Edey in side. In the Utah State game, for example, Purdue took their emotion out of the game midway through the first half and just continued to remove any doubt in the second half. Purdue would do well if it can force Burns to the bench through fouls or ineffectiveness because he is the engine that makes that team go.

3 | Shoot Well from Behind the Arc

This may be the single biggest factor that has led to NC State’s run over the last nine games. In their games prior to the ACC Tourney, opponents were shooting an average of 35.1% from behind the arc and connecting on roughly 7 of 20 attempts. That percentage is down to 28.4% on nearly 26 attempts per game. It seems that as teams have gone deeper into a game with NC State, they have challenged the paint less and struggled to not take threes in almost a panic type moment.

Purdue is still one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the country at 40.6% as a team, even after the abysmal performance against Tennessee of going 3-15 for 20%. That is by far the worst shooting night for the Boilers in that regard with a previous low of 23.5% against Gonzaga in Maui. Those poor shooting nights are very few and far between this season and have featured a very quick turnaround.

The Three Pointer: Purdue vs. NC State (2)

Here are five examples this season in games after the Maui Invitational where Purdue shot poorly from behind in the arc and the game immediately following it.

@ Michigan Wolverines: 7/24 (29.2%)
Michigan State: 10/20 (50%) + 20.8%

@ Rutgers: 5/19 (26.3%)
Northwestern Wildcats : 10/21 (47.6%) + 21.3%

Eastern Kentucky: 6/21 (28.6%)
@ Maryland Terrapins: 9/20 (45%) + 16.4%

@ Wisconsin Badgers: 3/11 (27.3%)
Indiana Hoosiers: 8/21 (38.1%) + 10.8%

And 1 | Dominate the Advantages Purdue Has

There are a few places where Purdue holds a distinct advantage that it needs to leverage against opponents. We’ve already spoken about fouls and getting to the free throw line but Purdue also holds a huge advantage rebounding the ball and with the quality of their depth on the bench. Those two aspects are areas that Purdue can dominate against the Wolfpack.

Purdue is a top 10 rebounding team grabbing an average 40.8 per game with 12.3 of those coming on the offensive end. Purdue has gone squarely against some of the better rebounding teams in the country and made them bend the knee as the Boilers hold a +11.7 advantage on the season. Against the Vols, a team that prides itself on effort and defense, Purdue outrebounded them 47-26. Just a waterfall of rebounds to the Boilers’ advantage and something they could easily do again in this game.

To compare the depth of the teams, Purdue has moved to an eight man rotation with Gillis, Heide, and Colvin only off the bench. That’s left Morton and Furst notably absent from much playing time this tourney but has benefitted those three players with more consistent playing time. Those three, although haven’t provided a lot of scoring through the tourney up to this point, have all shown a real scoring threat off the bench. That is led by the B1G’s ‘6th Man of the Year’ in Mason Gillis and his three point shooting ability.

The Three Pointer: Purdue vs. NC State (3)

NC State brings Ben Middlebrooks and Jaden Taylor off the bench but a seven man rotation can be one that is very difficult to manage against Purdue as Edey and TKR on the inside with Braden Smith at the point wear a team down the deeper the game gets. Taylor does provide 11.2 points per game but is essentially provided starter level minutes at 29 per game while Middlebrooks averages 5.8 per game. If the fouls become an issue for both side, Purdue’s depth will likely take over with Gillis, Heide, and Colvin likely being able to start for most teams that played in the NCAA Tourney coming in.

The part that Purdue excels in the most is how they share the basketball, especially in the this NCAA Tourney. Entering their semi-final matchup the Boilers have 92 total assists which is the most entering the Final Four since Kentucky’s 1994-1995 team had 100. Overall, Purdue has assisted on 92 of 122 made field goals, a 75.4% rate. That 23 per game average through the NCAA Tourney is an uptick from the regular season number of 18.4 per game and assist rate for the season of 65.8 is second nationally.

Braden Smith has been the lead on this with 38 total assists through the first four games headed into the Final Four. He needs five to tie Bobby Hurley with 43 to enter the top 10 and would need to get 23 more to tie the tourney record of 61 set by Mark Wade of UNLV in 1987. It would also mean Smith would break the single season B1G record of assists of 291 set by Cassius Winston of Michigan State. Smith currently has 278.

Players to Watch:

Horne is very clearly the best player that the Wolfpack rely on from a scoring standpoint and shoots the ball really well from behind the arc at nearly 41%. He is averaging 19 through the last 5 games while hitting 12 threes on 33 attempts (36%). It is likely a job first assigned to Lance Jones with Braden Smith picking up the slack.

The Three Pointer: Purdue vs. NC State (4)

The charismatic leader for the Wolfpack, the big man in the middle plays really similarly to former Purdue center Trevion Williams. He has flashed through the NCAA Tourney with his quick feet, ability to pass, hit tough shots, and his enigmatic smile. Edey and TKR will get this job but he does have a tendency to get himself into foul trouble averaging 2.6 per game this season with two foul outs and six games with four. He is averaging 24.8 minutes per game.

The Three Pointer: Purdue vs. NC State (5)

Prediction:

It’s hard to really provide an in-depth prediction for this one. Purdue holds the advantage in nearly every statistical category but so did literally every other team that NC State has faced up to this point in the NCAA Tourney. They are on as much of a heater as anyone has ever seen in March and are playing really, really free. Purdue simply can’t take them for granted and have to remain focused on this being another one game season.

Purdue has shown an incredible resolve up to this point in the tourney and have played as consistent as UConn so far (with a harder path) to the Final Four. No really! UConn has played an average seed of 8.25, Bama at 8, NC State at 6.5, and Purdue at 7.75 so this matchup pits the two most tested teams up to this point in time, in reference to their opponent’s average seed.

Edey is a matchup nightmare for NC State and I don’t think they matchup well in most other positions with the Boilers. NC State, though, has tuned all of that out and just played as connected as the Boilers. I like the Boilers to make their first National Championship game since Rick Mount led them there in 1969.

Purdue: 84
NC State: 70